What’s Really Happening in the Stonnington Property Market? Cohen Handler’s Nicole Jacobs on Toorak, South Yarra and Malvern in 2026
Cohen Handler’s Managing Director for Victoria, Nicole Jacobs, recently sat down with Jellis Craig Stonnington, Richmond & Surrounds Director Carla Fetter, in a live webinar hosted by Deanne Jolly, to unpack what is genuinely happening across the Stonnington property market in 2026. With one of Melbourne’s most accomplished buyer’s advocates on one side of the table and one of Stonnington’s leading selling agents on the other, the conversation cut through the headlines to what buyers and sellers are actually experiencing on the ground.
The verdict: sentiment is cautious four weeks on from the Federal Budget, but blue-chip Stonnington property continues to hold its value, and for buyers prepared to act with good advice, the opportunities are real.
A cautious market but blue-chip Stonnington is holding firm
The wider Melbourne backdrop is undeniably softer. Auction clearance rates sat around 53–59 per cent in early June 2026, down from roughly 65–71 per cent at the same time last year, and home sales across the city are tracking about 14.2 per cent lower year-on-year. Even Toorak, Melbourne’s most resilient prestige market, has seen its median house price ease to around $4.34 million according to PropTrack.
But as Nicole explained in the webinar, a softer market is not a weak one for quality assets. Her message the night after the Budget was simple: don’t panic. Tax is only one part of the equation, and the long-term case for owning the right property in a strong fundamental area hasn’t changed. Stonnington, she noted, offers exactly that combination, excellent schools, strong transport, proximity to the city, genuine land value, and a diversity of stock that ranges from well-built Art Deco apartments to single-fronted cottages and prestige family homes.
Carla, who sells across the Stonnington house market, agreed. From entry-level apartment stock through to ultra-prestige homes, she told the panel, blue-chip Stonnington real estate tends to hold well regardless of the environment around it.
How the Budget is reshaping buyer strategy
One of the clearest shifts the panel identified is a rethink of investment strategy following the Budget’s changes to negative gearing. With the principal place of residence remaining the asset that isn’t taxed on the way out, Carla is seeing buyers redirect capital away from a separate investment property and into a better long-term family home.
“Some people are now saying, well, let’s not worry about the investment property anymore, let’s actually spend more money to buy a better house for us for the long term,” she explained. From that perspective, she argued, the Budget has actually been constructive for the Stonnington family-home market.
It’s a strategic insight that independent data supports. Melbourne’s structural fundamentals, chronic undersupply, Australia’s fastest population growth, and a rental vacancy rate of just 1.5 per cent, continue to underpin quality housing, even as short-term sentiment wavers.
Why sentiment matters more than interest rates
For buyers, a hesitant market is an opportunity, provided you buy well. Across Stonnington, median house prices currently sit around $4.07 million in Toorak, $2.78 million in Malvern, $2 million in Armadale, $1.8 million in South Yarra and $1.5 million in Prahran, giving well-advised buyers a genuine spread of blue-chip entry points.
Carla shared a telling example from Armadale: a long-held principal place of residence the vendors hoped would fetch $11–12 million, where testing the market with key buyers and advocates, Nicole among them, revealed the genuine level sat closer to $10 million. Rather than chase an unrealistic price, the advice was to hold and revisit later in the year. Realistic, motivated vendors who listen to the market, she stressed, are still achieving strong results.
Nicole’s caution to buyers was equally clear: don’t try to time the market. If it’s the right home for your family, fixating on paying slightly too much can cost you the property altogether. The buyers who struggle, she observed, are the ones with “one foot in the door and one foot out,” talking themselves out of the right home.
Why buyer representation matters in this market
In a market defined by uncertainty, the value of independent representation rises. A skilled buyers advocate in Melbourne doesn’t just find property, they frame the surrounding information so buyers understand exactly where a home sits in the current market, access off-market stock, and negotiate from a position of insight rather than emotion.
That’s the difference between reacting to headlines and acting on evidence. As a Melbourne buyers agent, Cohen Handler’s role is to give clients the confidence to buy the right property, at the right price, at the right time, particularly in a sought-after, tightly held market like Stonnington.
What comes next
The near-term forecasts are mixed: ANZ Research expects Melbourne house prices to dip around 1.7 per cent across 2026 before recovering to roughly 2.9 per cent growth in 2027, while KPMG has projected stronger gains. Either way, the consensus points to a market that softens in the short term and strengthens beyond it, a pattern that historically rewards buyers who act while sentiment is cautious rather than waiting for competition to return.
For blue-chip Stonnington, the long-term case remains intact. Scarcity, lifestyle, and enduring demand for Toorak, South Yarra, Prahran and Malvern aren’t going anywhere.
Looking to buy property in Stonnington or anywhere across Melbourne?
Whether you’re a first home buyer, an investor, or upgrading to your next family home, Cohen Handler’s Melbourne specialists can help you navigate this market with confidence.
Talk to our Melbourne team today.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sentiment across the Stonnington property market is cautious in 2026, with Melbourne auction clearance rates around 53–59 per cent and sales tracking about 14.2 per cent lower year-on-year. However, blue-chip suburbs such as Toorak, South Yarra, Prahran and Malvern continue to hold their value, and Cohen Handler’s Nicole Jacobs notes that well-advised buyers have genuine opportunities provided they buy quality stock.
For buyers prepared to act on good advice, a hesitant market can be an excellent time to buy. With Toorak’s median around $4.07 million and South Yarra’s around $1.8 million, and with seller competition softer than a year ago, buyers can negotiate from a position of strength. Nicole Jacobs cautions against trying to time the market — if it’s the right long-term home, waiting often means missing it.
Following the Budget’s changes to negative gearing, many buyers are rethinking their strategy and redirecting capital into their principal place of residence — the family home — which remains the asset that isn’t taxed on the way out. Jellis Craig Stonnington’s Carla Fetter notes this has been constructive for the Stonnington family-home market, with some buyers choosing to spend more on a better long-term home rather than a separate investment property.
The City of Stonnington spans Toorak, South Yarra, Prahran, Malvern, Malvern East, Armadale and Windsor, with median house prices ranging from roughly $1.5 million in Prahran to around $4.34 million in Toorak. Each offers blue-chip fundamentals — strong schools, transport and proximity to the city — so the best value depends on a buyer’s budget, brief and long-term plans, which is where a buyers advocate adds the most value.
A buyers agent, or buyers advocate, represents the buyer exclusively — sourcing properties (including off-market listings), assessing true market value, and negotiating or bidding on the buyer’s behalf. In a market shaped by sentiment, a Melbourne buyers agent like Cohen Handler frames the surrounding market data so clients can buy with evidence and confidence rather than reacting to headlines.
Buyers advocate fees in Melbourne are typically charged as either a fixed fee or a percentage of the purchase price, depending on the service and property value. For blue-chip Stonnington purchases, the fee is generally modest relative to the savings a skilled advocate can secure through accurate valuation, off-market access and disciplined negotiation. Cohen Handler’s Melbourne team can outline current fee structures during an initial consultation.